Optimism Around the New Fund
The chances of approval for a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) based on XRP have reached 70% on the Polymarket prediction platform. This level of confidence is linked to the recent surge in XRP’s value, which hit a record high of $3.39 for the first time in nearly seven years.
Following the successful launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024, many asset management companies have filed applications with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to create funds tied to various altcoins. The current growth of the cryptocurrency market and industry support from President Trump are bolstering investor interest in such instruments.
XRP Reaches Peak Popularity
XRP’s value has risen by more than 40% over the past week, fueling expectations of fund approval. According to forecasts from investment bank JPMorgan, funds based on Solana and XRP could attract a total of over $14 billion in investments by 2025. For XRP, the projected amount is between $4 and $8 billion.
ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted:
"JPMorgan claims that altcoin ETFs will gather $14 billion in investments in their first year, $3-6 billion for Solana and $4-8 billion for XRP. While my team hasn’t provided official estimates yet, this seems like a reasonable prediction. However, approval must come first."
Investor confidence is also reflected in the rising odds on Polymarket, where the probability of XRP ETF approval now stands at 70%.
SEC as a Major Obstacle
Currently, four applications for XRP-based ETFs are under review, submitted by WisdomTree, Bitwise, Canary Capital, and 21Shares. However, the main hurdle is the SEC, which continues to insist that XRP is a security.
With President Trump’s inauguration scheduled for next week, changes in SEC leadership are expected, which could shift the regulatory approach to cryptocurrencies. This gives investors and the crypto community reason for optimism about the imminent approval of the fund.
